Corn - Just My Opinion

Weekly Ethanol Grind (2/26) – 849 K bpd vs. 658 K week ago – Stocks – 22.4 M bbls vs. 22.8 M week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 400-800 K T. expected – new crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected

If I didn’t know better today’s lower trade in old crop corn is in the anticipation of less than stellar weekly sales tomorrow morning. The lack of noticeable export demand seems to be weighing on old crop corn. The trade still has concerns about the timeliness of the Brazilian 2nd season corn planting as well as the iffy weather in Argentina. Put all of the aforementioned together and it suggests we can grind lower in the near term but will still realize support longer term; at least until we have a better handle on the SA corn crop.

Corn processors still show the best basis levels. River locations are starting to improve from what I believe is slow producer selling. The midday posting at the Gulf shows it rolling to the May at a 15 cents spread vs. the March (right where the Board is at). Spreads are soft all the way out to the new crop. We’ve yet to see any deliveries against the March contract. The March/May spread saw its first lower close out of the last seven days. I guess when you go from even money to 17 cents over the spread is deserving of one day of correction. Basis levels on the Illinois river are such that deliveries should continue to be non-existent.

Poor export sales in the morning could easily have May corn challenging the $5.25 level. That would be contingent on taking out the $5.30 level. New crop corn should continue to stay relatively firm as the battle for acres vs. soybeans continues.

Daily Support & Resistance – 03/04

May Corn : $5.30 ($5.25) - $5.45

Dec Corn: $4.67 - $4.80 (?)

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Contact me! Tom Fritz, Agricultural Market Analyst at 1.800.786.4475.

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