Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed the last trading day of the week with losses of 1 3/4 to 3 1/4 cents. The CoT report from the CFTC had managed money corn speculative traders more net short wk/wk by 28.74%. There were more net sellers than long liquidators, although both were present from the managed money. USDA’s long-term projections for 2020/21 indicate 94.5 MA for corn. The following projected years were seen leveling off at 89 MA. Production estimates show 15.545 bbu, which would be a 12.82% increase yr/yr. The forecasted ending stocks are 825 mbu higher than the projected ending stocks for 19/20 MY, as the USDA projects a 2.754 bbu carryout for new crop corn. The DDGS report from U.S. Grains Council had DDGS prices steady with last week still at an 8% markup to corn, but a larger wk/wk premium to soybean meal currently 0.52.

Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.77 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

May 20 Corn closed at $3.82, down 2 3/4 cents,

Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.85 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents,

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.84 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean traders dropped the prices of the front months from 2 1/2 to 2 3/4 cents at the close on Friday. Soybean meal was also $0.80/ton lower, with 15 point losses in the soybean oil front month. The Commitment of Traders report showed managed money was more net short wk/wk to 92,172 contracts. Spec trader open interest was up 14,274 contracts with the majority as new shorts. On Tuesday, managed money was more net short in soybean meal as well. The OI was higher, and managed money meal traders were at their strongest net short on record, which is 68,150 contracts. Soybean oil spec traders were less long in the weekly update. There was new selling and long liquidation noted. USDA’s long-term projection estimates soybean planting acreage at 84 million for 2020, with the following years climbing to 86 million. They estimate a 3.46% increase to 20/21 soybean exports. Meal and oil exports are projected to decline in20/21 before picking back up in the long term. Prior to the NOPA report release next Tuesday, traders estimate 173.75 mbu of soybeans crushed by NOPA members during January.

Mar 20 Soybeans closed at $8.93 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

May 20 Soybeans closed at $9.03 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $9.15 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents,

Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $9.19 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

Mar 20 Soybean Meal closed at $291.10, down $0.80

Mar 20 Soybean Oil closed at $30.57, down $0.15

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures were 1/2 to 1 1/2 cents lower for the March contracts on Friday. Chicago wheat ended the session 1 1/2 cents lower, KC was lower by a half cent/bu. Spring wheat futures ended 1 1/4 cents lower. The markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Presidents Day. The CoT report with data from 02/11 showed that managed money was less net long for Chicago futures. SRW spec trader OI was mostly net new selling wk/wk. The same report indicated managed money was more net long wk/wk for KC wheat. The long was over 10,000 contracts and the net long is at 7 consecutive weeks. In spring wheat, speculative traders were 6,854 contracts net short, which was a 2,225 increase in the net position wk/wk. Wheat planting acreage from USDA’s long-term projection was 45 MA, which would be 0.2 lower yr/yr. that lower planting puts forecasted ending stocks at 950 mbu, equating the average farm price for 20/21 to be 4.80/bu. The report did insinuate a rising cash average price forecast. According to data from the FranceAgriMer, the French soft wheat crop was rated at 65% good/excellent, compared to 85% last year.

Mar 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.42 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Mar 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.65 1/2, down 1/2 cent,

Mar 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.25 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures came back from midday highs, but were still in positive territory after Friday trading, April cattle were up the most with $1.80 gains. Front month feeder cattle futures also closed up, with gains of $2.20 to $2.42. The 02/13 CME Feeder Cattle Index was 9 cents higher to $140.61. Live cattle spec traders were 33.11% less net long wk/wk, as 12,351 longs were liquidated from managed money traders on 02/11. Feeder cattle spec traders were more net short on Tuesday. Afternoon wholesale boxed beef prices were higher but tightened the Choice/Select Spread to $2.38. Choice boxes were up $1.64 to $208.09 cwt, while select boxes were $1.92 higher to $205.71 cwt. Cash trade for the week has been around $118-119, with dressed sales from $190 -$192. The USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter for the week through Saturday at 620,000 head, which is 9,000 head below last week but 12,000 more yr/yr. YTD cattle slaughter is estimated at 4.137 million head through Saturday, which is lower than last year having 4.150 million head at this point.

Feb 20 Cattle closed at $120.825, up $1.375,

Apr 20 Cattle closed at $120.325, up $1.800,

Jun 20 Cattle closed at $112.000, up $1.375,

Mar 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $138.525, up $2.200

Apr 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.375, up $2.425

May 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.200, up $2.375

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Feb hogs expired at $55.90 after a dime drop from Friday trades. The other front month lean hog futures were 12 to 22 cents higher. The CME Lean Hog Index for 2/12 was down $0.62 to $56.70. Data from the latest Commitment of Traders report showed managed money was less net long for lean hogs. On 02/11 spec trader OI was up 4,321 to 128,614 contracts. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout value was 35 cents lower on Friday afternoon, at $62.75 cwt. Loin cuts were down the most, with a $3.00 drop to $63.83 cwt. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was $0.92 higher on Friday, at $49.56. USDA estimated weekly FI hog slaughter through Saturday at 2.596 million head, which is 95,000 below last week, but out paces the same week last year by 99,000 head. YTD slaughter is estimated to be 17.28 million head through Saturday.

Feb 20 Hogs closed at $55.900, down $0.100,

Apr 20 Hogs closed at $64.300, up $0.225

May 20 Hogs closed at $73.000, up $0.150

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures posted 23 to 34 point losses by Friday’s close. The Commitment of Traders report had managed money more net long on Tuesday. The dollar was at its strongest since September 30th of last year. Cotton spec traders were 33,880 contracts long on Feb 11, the current net long is up to 9 consecutive weeks and counting. OI for the group was 3,749 lower to 57,258 contracts, that is the lowest managed money open interest since 12/24 of 2013! The Seam online cotton trading platform added 2,574 bales sold on 02/13, for an average gross price of 59.42 c/lb. The 02/13 Cotlook A index was 50 points higher to 77.70 cents/lb. The FAS Adjusted World Price for cotton is 58.82 cents/lb.

Mar 20 Cotton closed at 67.41, down 34 points,

May 20 Cotton closed at 68.41, down 22 points

Jul 20 Cotton closed at 69.28, down 22 points

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 69.36, down 23 points

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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